Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa’s fourth-round loss to Daniil Dubov at the 2025 FIDE World Cup didn’t just end his own run — it may have reshaped the entire qualification race for the 2026 Candidates Tournament.
How the World Cup and FIDE Circuit Are Connected
Three players qualify for the Candidates from the World Cup (the semifinalists), while one more qualifies via the FIDE Circuit standings — a yearlong points race across elite events.
However, there’s a key rule:
If a player finishes in the top three of the World Cup and is also leading the FIDE Circuit, their World Cup spot takes priority. The Circuit qualification then passes down to the runner-up in the standings.
That’s why many players — including Vincent Keymer, Alireza Firouzja, Nodirbek Abdusattorov, and Wesley So — were quietly rooting for Pragg to go deep in Goa. If the Indian prodigy had reached the semifinals, his World Cup result would have freed up the FIDE Circuit ticket for the next player in line.
What Changed After His Elimination
With Praggnanandhaa knocked out in Round 4, that scenario is gone.
He can no longer reach the top three at the World Cup, which means his Circuit lead (107 points) is now effectively unassailable — and he will keep the Circuit slot for himself.
| Rank | Player | Country | Circuit Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Praggnanandhaa R | 🇮🇳 India | 107.00 |
| 2 | Anish Giri | 🇳🇱 Netherlands | 81.18 |
| 3 | Fabiano Caruana | 🇺🇸 USA | 65.55 |
| 4 | Matthias Bluebaum | 🇩🇪 Germany | 63.94 |
| 5 | Vincent Keymer | 🇩🇪 Germany | 55.83 |
| 6 | Wesley So | 🇺🇸 USA | 52.41 |
| 7 | Nodirbek Abdusattorov | 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan | 51.99 |
Even if Giri or Caruana win another major event, catching up with Pragg’s total is virtually impossible at this point in the season.
Why This Hurts Firouzja, Abdusattorov, and Others
For rising stars like Firouzja and Abdusattorov, there were two realistic ways to make the Candidates:
- Reach the World Cup semifinals, or
- Benefit from Pragg’s top-three finish at the World Cup, which would’ve opened up the Circuit spot.
Now, with Pragg’s early exit, only the World Cup semifinalists, two Grand Swiss finishers, the 2024 Circuit winner, the 2025 Circuit leader, and the highest-rated player will qualify.
In short, one fewer door is open — and it’s closing fast.
Confirmed Candidates 2026 Field (as of November 2025)
Below is the updated list of players already qualified or almost guaranteed to qualify for the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament, including Hikaru Nakamura’s confirmed entry via the rating route and Praggnanandhaa’s likely spot through the FIDE Circuit.
| Qualification Method | Player | Country | Age | Rating | World Ranking (Nov 2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 FIDE Circuit winner | Fabiano Caruana | 🇺🇸 United States | 33 | 2795 | 3 |
| 2025 FIDE Grand Swiss (winner) | Anish Giri | 🇳🇱 Netherlands | 31 | 2769 | 5 |
| 2025 FIDE Grand Swiss (runner-up) | Matthias Blübaum | 🇩🇪 Germany | 28 | 2680 | 43 |
| 2025 FIDE World Cup (top 3 finishers) | TBD | – | – | – | – |
| 2025 FIDE Circuit winner | R Praggnanandhaa (almost certain) | 🇮🇳 India | 20 | 2737 | 12 |
| Highest average rating (Aug 2025 – Jan 2026) | Hikaru Nakamura | 🇺🇸 United States | 37 | 2813 | 2 |
Nakamura’s inclusion fills the rating-based qualification slot — a path that drew controversy earlier in the year because of his decision to play several U.S. open tournaments to meet FIDE’s 40-game requirement.
Despite criticism from some grandmasters, many defended Nakamura’s approach, noting that he followed the rules transparently and kept fans engaged by streaming his games.
The Irony of Pragg’s Position
Ironically, Praggnanandhaa’s early exit helps no one but himself. His consistent performances throughout 2025 gave him a commanding lead in the Circuit — and now, his own elimination prevents that spot from passing to anyone else.
India can already celebrate another likely Candidate, but for Firouzja, Abdusattorov, and others, Goa 2025 might have been the last chance that slipped away.
I’m Xuan Binh, the founder of Attacking Chess, and the Deputy Head of Communications at the Vietnam Chess Federation (VCF). My chess.com and lichess rating is above 2300. Send me a challenge or message via Lichess. Follow me on Twitter (X) or Facebook.
