Indian grandmaster R. Praggnanandhaa is on the verge of qualifying for the 2026 Candidates Tournament through the 2025 FIDE Circuit. With 107 points, he leads the standings by a huge margin, and most observers consider his place in the Candidates “99.99% secure.” Yet instead of staying home, preparing quietly, and letting the math do its work, the 20-year-old is taking a surprisingly bold step: he is entering the London Chess Classic Open, a 120-player Swiss event held from November 27 to December 3.
On paper, he doesn’t need to. In practice, it is the exact kind of decision that shows why the chess world respects him: he wants the qualification to be decided on the board, not by probabilities.
Why His Spot Is “Almost Guaranteed”
To understand the risk, you first have to understand the near-certainty. The FIDE Circuit awards one Candidates spot to the player with the best cumulative score from eligible tournaments in a calendar year. Praggnanandhaa’s consistent 2025 season — strong results across seven events — has put him far ahead of the field.
Behind him are Anish Giri, Fabiano Caruana, and Matthias Bluebaum. But all three have already qualified for the Candidates by other routes (Grand Swiss, 2024 Circuit, etc.), so their points no longer matter for the Circuit slot.
The next real challenger is Germany’s Vincent Keymer with 55.83 points, followed by Wesley So (52.41) and Nodirbek Abdusattorov (51.99). Realistically, none of them are close enough to threaten Pragg in a normal scenario. Even winning a major tournament usually adds only a moderate number of points, and there simply isn’t enough time left in the season.
This is why, after Praggnanandhaa’s early exit from the 2025 World Cup, analysts concluded that his Circuit lead is effectively untouchable. Since he can no longer finish in the World Cup top three, he keeps the Circuit spot for himself — it no longer gets “passed down” to the runner-up.
Current Top 10 of the FIDE Circuit 2025
| # | Player | Rating | Fed | Circuit Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Praggnanandhaa R | 2737 | IND | 107.00 |
| 2 | Anish Giri | 2733 | NED | 81.18 |
| 3 | Fabiano Caruana | 2805 | USA | 65.55 |
| 4 | Matthias Bluebaum | 2650 | GER | 63.94 |
| 5 | Vincent Keymer | 2733 | GER | 55.83 |
| 6 | Wesley So | 2747 | USA | 52.41 |
| 7 | Nodirbek Abdusattorov | 2777 | UZB | 51.99 |
| 8 | Magnus Carlsen | 2831 | NOR | 43.96 |
| 9 | M. Amin Tabatabaei | 2695 | IRI | 41.36 |
| 10 | Chithambaram Aravindh | 2718 | IND | 41.32 |
Then Why Is He Playing London?
This is the part that surprised the community — and delighted many fans.
Despite being an overwhelming favorite to qualify, Praggnanandhaa chose to enter the LCC Open instead of playing it safe. The open field is tough, rated 2581 on average, and includes dangerous grandmasters such as Georg Meier, Ilya Smirin, Vahap Sanal, and Velimir Ivic. A Swiss event always carries some risk: one bad day can ruin a tournament.
Yet Praggnanandhaa has 0 Open-tournament points in his Circuit tally. This means that any solid result in London — even a top-8 finish — would raise his total and push the score so high that reaching him becomes mathematically impossible.
With his live rating now at 2761, Praggnanandhaa also raises the strength of the London Chess Classic Open considerably. His presence pushes the average rating of the event’s eight highest-rated players to 2617, which means that even a top-three finish would mathematically end Abdusattorov’s remaining hopes of catching him in the FIDE Circuit race. The Open will be played over 9 Swiss rounds from November 27 to December 3, including two double-round days on November 28 and November 30, adding both intensity and unpredictability to the competition.
Many fans praised the decision: “He could sit at home and prep, but he doesn’t want to leave it to chance,” one commenter wrote. Another added: “He wants to triple quadruple lock his Circuit spot down.”
In short, Pragg is not protecting a lead — he is closing the door completely.
The Only Remaining Threat: A Near-Impossible Scenario
So what is the risk?
It comes from one unlikely chain of events involving Nodirbek Abdusattorov, who is playing the invitational closed round-robin at the London Chess Classic — the elite event running alongside the Open. Abdusattorov, currently seventh in the Circuit standings, would need a miracle run to catch Pragg.
The scenario looks like this:
- Win the London Chess Classic elite invitational,
- Win the FIDE World Rapid Championship, and
- Win the FIDE World Blitz Championship — all before the end of 2025.
Only by sweeping all three events could Abdusattorov theoretically surpass 107 points. Multiple analysts on Reddit pointed this out: “A very small chance… nearly impossible… but why leave anything to chance especially when a Candidates spot is at stake?”
And they’re right — this level of domination would be historic. Even Magnus Carlsen, the greatest rapid and blitz player ever, rarely sweeps both World Rapid and Blitz in the same year. And Carlsen is participating in both events this December, making an Abdusattorov sweep even more unlikely.
Yet because this tiny, 0.01% scenario technically exists, Praggnanandhaa is refusing to rest.
A Risk — But a Calculated One
By choosing to play the LCC Open, Praggnanandhaa exposes himself to a small sporting risk: losing rating points, wasting energy before a busy December (which includes the World Rapid & Blitz and the GCL), and possibly facing unpredictable pairings in a large Swiss. But the upside outweighs everything:
- Even a modest podium finish adds points he cannot lose later.
- It blocks the only theoretical path for Abdusattorov.
- It demonstrates competitive sharpness right before the biggest tournaments of the winter.
This is why many fans see the decision as a sign of maturity: he is taking control of his qualification rather than relying on others or trusting probability.
The Bigger Picture: The Candidates Race Tightens
Praggnanandhaa’s choice comes at the end of a dramatic year. The Indian contingent’s disappointing World Cup in Goa — where 24 Indian players started but none reached the semifinals — closed one major qualification path. Meanwhile, Hikaru Nakamura has secured the rating spot, Caruana is in via the 2024 Circuit, Giri and Bluebaum qualified from the Grand Swiss, and the World Cup semifinalists will claim three places.
This leaves only one open door: the 2025 FIDE Circuit. And Praggnanandhaa is standing guard at that door to make sure it stays his.
With a solid performance in London, his Candidates 2026 qualification will shift from “almost certain” to “absolutely guaranteed.”
In other words: the risk is small — but the reward is the biggest opportunity in world chess.
I’m a passionate board game enthusiast and a skilled player in chess, xiangqi and Go. Words for Attacking Chess since 2023. Ping me at Lichess for a game or chat.
